Under the "five - layer cake" of AI, be a hunter of certainty in the anti - cycle ——Strategic thinking of Icomoon Capital

Recently, we participated in the Sydney International Economic Forum. In the industry, in - depth research and judgment by the AEF NextGen Fund (Alibaba - affiliated) on the AI "Five - layer Cake" (computing power layer, model layer, platform layer, application layer, terminal layer) and the "reverse bubble" has attracted wide attention. Alibaba Capital clearly pointed out that there is a significant valuation trough in the current market. Taking NVIDIA as an example, its valuation is about 40% lower than the five - year historical average. Based on this, it adopts a strategy of high concentration and fast pace (invested in 4 companies with a cost of $16 million and a book return of 1.61x), and heavily invests in the bottlenecks of underlying computing power and embodied intelligent hardware.
After in - depth study of this highly forward - looking "hard - tech answer sheet", Icomoon Capital has become more determined in our investment philosophy of "differentiated competition, reverse thinking, and seeking certainty". The Alibaba - affiliated entities focus on the global macro - pattern and bet on the disruptive changes in the next 10 years at both ends of the "Five - layer Cake" (underlying energy/chips and top - level AI Agent applications). In contrast, we choose to lie in wait in the "middle reaches of the value chain" - those links that provide key components for giants but are often overlooked by the market, and act as the "invisible supporters" of the industrial chain.
I. We Don't Gamble on the "Most Expensive Bottlenecks", We Look for the "Deepest Supply - Chain Barriers"
Alibaba Capital regards solving China's short - board in computing power (low efficiency of domestic GPUs) as the core pain point, so it heavily invests in cutting - edge fields such as computing power chips and intelligent network cards. This is a long - term and high - uncertainty challenge with high barriers, which is the main battlefield for national teams and leading large VCs.
Icomoon Capital's logic is significantly different: we don't bet on whether the underlying chips can achieve a breakthrough, but focus on the "hidden champions" that provide core components for chip manufacturing and high - end equipment. Specific directions include precision optical systems, semiconductor testing equipment, and high - speed optoelectronic signal acquisition. These links are indispensable parts of the "chokepoint" supply chain and already have real orders and stable profits. This "water - seller" strategy does not depend on the success or failure of a single technology route, but relies on the rigid demand of the entire industrial chain, with a higher safety margin and anti - cycle ability.
II. Another Stance Against the Bubble: Don't Chase Valuation Bubbles, Just Seek "Certain Cash Flows"
The Alibaba PPT points out that the market has factored in the "bottleneck factors" in pricing. Many pure - software AI applications, although having extremely high gross margins, face a very high elimination rate.
When screening projects, Haoyue Capital has clear core indicators: ① Rigid demand for domestic substitution; ② Solid operating cash flows; ③ A relatively high market share in the niche market (usually ≥30%). We don't chase short - term traffic explosions but accompany enterprises through the process from technology verification to large - scale commercial implementation (i.e., from 1 to 10). The essence of our investment is "real - money - making industries" rather than "conceptual stories". In the current macro - environment, projects with self - financing ability are the real hard currency to survive economic cycles.
III. The "Stability" of Exit Paths: The STAR Market as the Main Axis, Combined with Multi - dimensional Capital Operations
The Alibaba Fund is deeply anchored in Hong Kong IPOs, believing that the liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market in AI and biotechnology provides a clear exit path.
Haoyue Capital fully agrees with this view. However, considering our positioning of deeply engaging in the middle reaches of "hard - tech", we have built a more three - dimensional and multi - dimensional exit matrix:

STAR Market: As the core board specifically established for "hard - tech", it highly aligns with the precision manufacturing, semiconductor equipment, and AI hardware sectors we invest in. For enterprises that have achieved commercialization and own independent core intellectual property rights, the STAR Market provides clear listing standards and policy support, and is the main battlefield for us to promote the IPO of mid - to - late - stage projects.
Hong Kong Stock Exchange (including the new Rule 18C): As an international capital window, it offers an alternative listing option for some eligible enterprises.
Mergers, Acquisitions, and Restructuring of Listed Companies: Against the backdrop of the current regulation of the IPO pace, we regard this as one of the core exit channels, helping high - quality manufacturing enterprises with technology and profits to quickly integrate into the industrial chain of A - share listed companies and achieve efficient securitization.
Cross - border Capital Operations: Relying on the rich experience of the founding team in overseas markets such as Australia, we provide overseas exit solutions for enterprises with global layouts.
This flexible strategy of "centering on the STAR Market, combined with the Hong Kong stock market, mergers and acquisitions, and overseas operations" can significantly reduce the impact of single - market fluctuations on the portfolio and provide more certain returns for LPs.

IV. Conclusion: Be the "Ballast Stone" in the AI Wave
Alibaba - affiliated capital is the "pioneer" of the era, using capital to catalyze disruptive technologies. In contrast, Haoyue Capital hopes to be a stable cornerstone in China's high - end manufacturing industrial chain.
We don't chase grand narratives in the virtual world but deeply engage in the underlying support of hard - tech entities. Relying on our composite team of "industry + finance + law", we continuously empower the "hidden champions" that focus on niche markets. In the process of AI reshaping the world, Haoyue Capital is willing to share the technological dividends and achieve win - win results with like - minded partners through a more certain and verifiable investment logic.